Waiting 12 months for 5.9% still costs you about $10,408 vs buying now.
Break-even: rates must fall below 5.28% for waiting 12 months to pay off — price growth and rent eat the rest.
Buy now
$2,630/mo
Wait 12 mo
$2,474/mo
Price then
$463,500
5-year cost of waiting, by the rate you actually get
Wait, then buyBuy now (your rate is locked)Break-even rate
Side by side
Buy now
Wait 12 mo
Home price
$450,000
$463,500
Monthly P&I
$2,630
$2,474 at 5.9%
Cash needed at closing
$58,500
$60,255
Rent paid while waiting
$0
$33,600
5-yr net cost
$74,836
$85,244
Compares net cost over 5 years from today (payments + upfront + rent while waiting, minus equity built), same home either way, 3% closing costs. Nobody can promise where rates go — but if they fall after you buy, you can refinance; a higher price and lost equity can’t be refinanced away. Estimates only — not financial advice.
The best answer is rarely the calendar — it’s your number. If a comfortable payment exists today, waiting is a bet you don’t need to make.